WHY IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTH CAROLINA MATTER – Keith Gaddie and Kirby Goidel: “On February 1, 2016 the primary presidential nominating delegates shall be decided on, in Iowa. Iowa is the primary of the ‘trinity’ occasions that get started the real marketing campaign, at the side of New Hampshire and South Carolina….[O]f the final six open GOP nominations, Iowa appropriately picked 3 winners, New Hampshire 4 and South Carolina 5. The only time all 3 early states agreed on a nominee used to be 1980, with Ronald Reagan. [T]he Trinity issues as a result of it creates an early chance to clutch momentum, show viability and garner media consideration.” [HuffPost]
‘Nice uncertainty’ approximately how the primaries will play out – Extra from Gaddie and Goidel: “The invisible number one has been strangely visual this election, with more than one televised debate-occasions feeding the general public a gentle flow of content material….The marketing campaign is especially abrasive as a result of the mix of favor and technique. The result’s a marketing campaign surroundings the place we’re nonetheless checking out contenders and subsequently the occasions of the early primaries are unsure. That is each a laugh from a gamesmanship perspective, but in addition creates nice uncertainty approximately how momentum and viability can be captured via the rest contenders.”
That uncertainty way number one polls nonetheless aren’t predictive – Nate Cohn: “You’ve got surely heard that number one polls aren’t essentially very predictive a long way from an election. With only a month to head till the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to inform you that it’s nonetheless actual….This segment of the race — the general stretch sooner than Iowa and New Hampshire — may also be probably the most risky of all of the marketing campaign….In up to date number one campaigns, going again to the 2004 Democratic number one, the ones applicants who’ve led in Iowa or New Hampshire polls with only one month to head have misplaced as steadily as they have got gained. On moderate, applicants’ percentage of the vote at this level differed from their ultimate percentage of the vote by way of round seven proportion issues. With many applicants operating, it used to be on no account unusual for a candidate to transport through extra.” [NYT]
TRUMP LEADING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTH CAROLINA, CLOSE RACE IN IOWA – Donald Trump is playing a lead of over 20 issues in each New Hampshire and South Carolina polls. In New Hampshire, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.) are the closest competition, at the same time as in South Carolina Cruz, Rubio and neurosurgeon Ben Carson are in the second one tier. In Iowa, Cruz holds a mild lead over Donald Trump within the HuffPost Pollster Iowa chart, averaging 30.eight % to Trump’s 28.four %. Rubio is in a far off 3rd, greater than 15 issues at the back of Trump. The shut averages mirror inconsistency within the polls — the ultimate 5 polls have ranged a Cruz good thing about as much as nine issues to Trump best via three issues.
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POLLSTERS SAY PUBLIC IMAGE OF POLLING HAS DECLINED – Carl Bialik: “No votes were forged but within the 2016 election, however there would possibly already be one set of losers within the marketing campaign: pollsters’ reputations. And that’s in keeping with the pollsters themselves. We requested other folks running at probably the most country’s so much outstanding polling clothes whether or not pollsters’ public symbol has stepped forward or declined because the 2012 election. Of the 21 who replied, none stated their public symbol had stepped forward, and -thirds stated it had declined….The use of a vintage tactic in politics, many pollsters blamed the media….Pollsters stated they shouldn’t be blamed if the media overstate the knowledge of a ballot’s discovering approximately what the bulk needs, or if coverage makers placed undue emphasis on what polls in finding. ‘Polls don’t seem to be intended to be a blueprint for coverage,’ stated J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Corporate, a Des Moines, Iowa, polling company. ‘However, it’s useful to understand the place a majority stand — believe an international the place you didn’t realize that.’” 
HUFFPOST POLLSTER TWEAKS CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING POLLS IN CHARTS — HuffPollster: “At HuffPost Pollster, we purpose to be inclusive. We need to come with each and every ballot that makes a decent try to degree opinion within the related inhabitants, and we don’t cut price polls only as a result of the strategies they use….On the comparable time, we agree that many pollsters are too lax in offering necessary main points to lend a hand ballot shoppers examine their paintings. In 2010, Blumenthal wrote that Pollster might handiest come with polls in its charts if their publicly available reviews meet the Nationwide Council on Public Polls’ ‘degree 1’ disclosure necessities. For the previous couple of years, we have now ordinary knowledge by means of e mail, even if it’s now not a part of the pollsters’ public fabrics. On the other hand, we at the moment are returning to the requirement that all the NCPP’s minimum disclosure pieces will have to be to be had publicly sooner than we will be able to come with that pollster’s polls in our charts….We will be able to now not make any adjustments to our approaches for the 2016 Republican and Democratic number one races on the nationwide or state degree….For the nationwide 2016 common election, beginning Jan. 1 we will be able to handiest come with polls from pollsters who’ve all the NCPP degree 1 disclosure knowledge publicly to be had both on their ballot releases or on their web pages. Pollsters who’re participants of the American Affiliation for Public Opinion Analysis’s Transparency Initiative will probably be customary with out query.” [HuffPollster]
MORE OF THIS WEEK’S POLLS
-So much American citizens assume 2015 used to be a just right yr for them in my opinion however now not for the remainder of the arena. [YouGov]
–A HuffPost/YouGov ballot presentations that 2015 didn’t convey an finish to American citizens’ financial concerns. [HuffPost]
-Make stronger for non secular coverage varies relying at the faith in query. [AP]
-A majority of American citizens are k with sacrificing civil liberties in trade for protection. [ABC]&#one hundred sixty;
-Partisanship deeply impacts perspectives on president Obama and terrorism. [WashPost]&#one hundred sixty;
-Pope Francis and Donald Trump tie in 2d position for so much in demand guy of 2015 at the back of Barack Obama. [Gallup]
THIS WEEK’S ‘OUTLIERS’ – Hyperlinks to the most productive of stories on the intersection of polling, politics and political knowledge:
-Donald Trump’s beef up is most powerful amongst people who are much less more likely to vote within the primaries. [NYT] &#one hundred sixty;&#one hundred sixty;
-Marketing campaign garden indicators would possibly not building up turnout, however they may be able to probably shift votes in an in depth race. [Politico]
-Polls display a robust racial divide at the factor of whether or not school athletes will have to be paid. [WashPost]
-There are extra polls than ever within the 2016 race, however that does not imply that they let us know so much. [NYT] &#one hundred sixty;
-Extra American citizens are moving clear of house web and depending only on smartphones for web get entry to. [Pew]
-Amy Walter recalls mythical pollster Andy Kohut as a “measured voice of explanation why” within the polling box. &#one hundred sixty;[Politico] &#one hundred sixty;
-New Yr’s ranks in 4th position as certainly one of The us’s favourite vacations. 
-There is a new Donald Trump parody account that desires to “Make Polling Nice Once more.” [Twitter account]
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